Testing For Financial Contagion Between Developed And Emerging Markets During The 1997 East Asian Crisis

In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over)identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan (the major international lender in the region), which drastically cut its credit lines to the other Asian countries in 1997

Depth dependence of westward-propagating North Atlantic features diagnosed from altimetry and a numerical 1/6° model

International audienceA 1/6° numerical simulation is used to investigate the vertical structure of westward propagation between 1993 and 2000 in the North Atlantic ocean. The realism of the simulated westward propagating signals, interpreted principally as the signature of first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves (RW), is first assessed by comparing the simulated amplitude and zonal phase speeds of Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) against TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS satellite altimeter data. Then, the (unobserved) subsurface signature of RW phase speeds is investigated from model outputs by means of the Radon Transform which was specifically adapted to focus on first-mode baroclinic RW. The analysis is performed on observed and simulated SLA and along 9 simulated isopycnal displacements spanning the 0-3250 m depth range. Simulated RW phase speeds agree well with their observed counterparts at the surface, although with a slight slow bias. Below the surface, the simulated phase speeds exhibit a systematic deceleration with increasing depth, by a factor that appears to vary geographically. Thus, while the reduction factor is about 15-18% on average at 3250 m over the region considered, it appears to be much weaker (about 5-8%) in the eddy-active Azores Current, where westward propagating structures might be more coherent in the vertical. In the context of linear theories, these results question the often-made normal mode assumption of many WKB-based theories that the phase speed is independent of depth. Alternatively, these results could also suggest that the vertical structure of westward propagating signals may significantly depend on their degree of nonlinearity, with the degree of vertical coherence possibly increasing with the degree of nonlinearity

Annual sea level variability of the coastal ocean: The Baltic Sea-North Sea transition zone

The annual cycle is a major contribution to the non-tidal variability in sea level. Its characteristics can vary substantially even at a regional scale, particularly in an area of high variability such as the coastal ocean. This study uses previously validated coastal altimetry solutions (from ALES dataset) and the reference ESA Sea Level Climate Change Initiative dataset to improve the understanding of the annual cycle during the Envisat years (2002-2010) in the North Sea - Baltic Sea transition area. This area of study is chosen because of the complex coastal morphology and the availability of in-situ measurements. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the improvements brought by coastal satellite altimetry to the description of the annual variability of the sea level have been evaluated and discussed. The findings are interpreted with the help of a local climatology and wind stress from a reanalysis model. The coastal amplitude of the annual cycle estimated from ALES altimetry data is in better agreement with estimations derived from in-situ data than the one from the reference dataset. Wind stress is found to be the main driver of annual cycle variability throughout the domain, while different steric contributions are responsible for the differences within and among the sub-basins. We conclude that the ALES coastal altimetry product is a reliable dataset to study the annual cycle of the sea level at a regional scale and the strategy described in this research can be applied to other areas of the coastal ocean where the coverage from the tide gauges is not sufficient

Modeling Envisat RA-2 waveforms in the coastal zone: case-study of calm water contamination

Radar altimeters have so far had limited use in the coastal zone, the area with most societal impact. This is due to both lack of, or insufficient accuracy in the necessary corrections, and more complicated altimeter signals. This paper examines waveform data from the Envisat RA-2 as it passes regularly over Pianosa (a 10 km2 island in the NW Mediterranean). Forty-six repeat passes were analysed, with most showing a reduction in signal upon passing over the island, with weak early returns corresponding to the reflections from land. Intriguingly one third of cases showed an anomalously bright hyperbolic feature. This feature may be due to extremely calm waters in the Golfo della Botte (northern side of the island), but the cause of its intermittency is not clear. The modelling of waveforms in such a complex land/sea environment demonstrates the potential for sea surface height retrievals much closer to the coast than is achieved by routine processing. The long-term development of altimetric records in the coastal zone will not only improve the calibration of altimetric data with coastal tide gauges, but also greatly enhance the study of storm surges and other coastal phenomena

ALTICORE: an initiative for coastal altimetry

ALTICORE (value-added ALTImetry for COastal REgions) is an international initiative whose main objective is to encourage the operational use of altimetry over coastal areas, by improving the quality and availability of coastal altimetry data. The ALTICORE proposal has recently been submitted for funding to the INTAS scheme (www.intas.be) by a consortium of partners from Italy, France, UK, Russia and Azerbaijan. ALTICORE is also meant as a contribution to the ongoing International Altimeter Service effort. In this work we will describe the anticipated project stages, namely: 1) improvement of the most widely distributed, 1 Hz, data by analyzing the corrective terms and providing the best solutions, including those derived from appropriate local modelling; 2) development of a set of algorithms to automate quality control and gap-filling functions for the coastal regions; 3) development of testing strategies to ensure a thorough validation of the data. The improved products will be delivered to ALTICORE users via Grid-compliant technology; this makes it easier to integrate the local data holdings, allows access from a range of services, e.g. directly into model assimilation or GIS systems and should therefore facilitate a widespread and complete assessment of the 1Hz data performance and limitations. We will also outline the design and implementation of the Grid-compliant system for efficient access to distributed archives of data; this consists of regional data centres, each having primary responsibility for regional archives, local corrections and quality control, and operating a set of web-services allowing access to the full functionality of data extraction. We will conclude by discussing a follow-on phase of the project; this will investigate further improvements on the processing strategy, including the use of higher frequency (10 or 20 Hz) data. Phenomena happen at smaller spatial scales near the coast, so this approach is necessary to match the required resolution. The whole project will hopefully promote the 15-year sea surface height from altimetry to the rank of operational record for the coastal areas

Modeling Envisat RA-2 waveforms in the coastal zone: Case study of calm water contamination

This letter examines waveform data from the Envisat RA-2 as it passes regularly over Pianosa (a 10-km 2 island in the northwestern Mediterranean). Forty-six repeat passes were analyzed, with most showing a reduction in signal upon passing over the island, with weak early returns corresponding to the reflections from land. Intriguingly, one third of cases showed an anomalously bright hyperbolic feature. This feature may be due to extremely calm waters in the Golfo della Botte (northern side of the island), but the cause of its intermittency is not clear. The modeling of waveforms in such a complex land/sea environment demonstrates the potential for sea surface height retrievals much closer to the coast than is achieved by routine processing. The long-term development of altimetric records in the coastal zone will not only improve the calibration of altimetric data with coastal tide gauges but also greatly enhance the study of storm surges and other coastal phenomena

Validation of Sentinel-3a Sral Coastal Sea Level Data at High Posting Rate: 80Hz

Altimetry data of two and a half years (June 2016-November 2018) of Sentinel 3A SRAL were validated at the sampling frequency of 80 Hz. The study areas are three coastal sites in Spain: Huelva (HU) (Gulf of Cadiz), Barcelona (BA), and Bilbao (BI). Two tracks were selected in each site: one ascending and one descending. Data were validated using in situ tide gauge (TG) data provided by the Spanish Puertos del Estado. In the 5 to 20 km segment, the results were 6-8 cm (rmse) and 0.7-0.8 (r) for all the tracks. The 0 to 5 km segment was also analyzed in detail to study the land effect on the altimetry data quality. The results showed that the track orientation, the angle of intersection with the coast, and the land topography concur to determine the nearest distance to the coast at which the data retain a similar level of accuracy than in the 5 to 20 km segment. This distance of good quality to shore reaches a minimum of 3 km for the tracks at HU and the descending track at BA

Coastal altimetry products in the strait of Gibraltar

This paper analyzes the availability and accuracy of coastal altimetry sea level products in the Strait of Gibraltar. All possible repeats of two sections of the Envisat and AltiKa ground-tracks were used in the eastern and western portions of the strait. For Envisat, along-track sea level anomalies (SLAs) at 18-Hz posting rate were computed using ranges from two sources, namely, the official SGDRs and the outputs of a coastal waveform retracker, the ALES retracker; in addition, SLAs at 1 Hz were obtained from CTOH, France. For AltiKa, along-track SLA at 40 Hz was also computed both from SGDR and ALES ranges. The quality of these altimeter products was validated using two tide gauges located on the southern coast of Spain. We observed an improvement of about 20% in the accuracy of the Envisat SLAs from ALES compared to the standard (SGDR) and the reprocessed CTOH data sets. AltiKa shows higher accuracy, with no significant differences between SGDR and ALES

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents